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What's up people? Butler here, fired up for another Market Measures NotebookOver the past few years,we’ve experienced a very strong bull market with virtually no sizeable pullbacks.So we wanted to compare the recent market actionto the market's movements over the past 20 years.In doing so, we can put the current market into perspective,and see if the recent years have actually been outliers.For our study,we researched the number of 5% and 10% correctionsthat have occurred over the past 20 years in the S&P 500.And starting in 1995,we counted the number of trading daysit took for the S&P to correct5% and 10% from the high point of its most recent rally.We sorted the results into two time periods:1995 to 2011, and 2012 to present.This allowed us to comparethe frequency of corrections over the first 18 years to the last 3 years.Over the first 18 years of the study,the S&P had a total of 200 5% corrections.In
that same time period,the S&P had 48 10% correctionswith 84% of them occurring less than266 days from the previous correction.But over the past 3 years,the S&P has had just 10 5% corrections.And we've had only one single 10% correctionin the past three years,with a current streak of over 700 days since the last 10% correction.So what's the takeaway here?Simply that the market has experiencedfar fewer pullbacks in recent yearsas compared to the previous couple of decades.Does this mean that a huge market correction is imminent?Not necessarily.But it does show thatthe volatility of the market has contracted significantly.If we had to guess,we’d bet that over the next 17 years,the frequency of corrections will pick back up,on average.OK, hope this was helpful!I'm Chris Butler. Check out tastytrade.com for much more!
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There are a variety of ways to perform emini trading, utilizing styles that range from short-term scalping to swing trading and hedging to using emini contracts. Scalping, in particular, can be considered as short-term scalping. This means that an average trade does not last more than half an hour and at times, even that can be regarded as a long trade. For traders who are interested in their emini scalping trading and high probability quality setups, taking 5 to 8 trades every day should be the goal.
Some emini traders commence setups in their trading methodology by using various indicators and oscillators. However, there are certain inherent problems in indicator based style of trading as a result of which the potential success of a trader is hindered. Some of those problems include:
All indicators and oscillators are based upon a clearly stated historical timeframe, which means that the market is lagged by all indicators and oscillators.
Since the market is lagged by indicator-based trading, it is often quite common for small traders to be late at entering trades on tier 2 quotes. They end up entering toward by the time a market move has neared its end.
When it comes to consolidation channel trading, indicators and oscillators become useless, since really tight price action is included in the time under consideration, so many of the current style indicators tend to exaggerate smaller moves.
However, this does not mean that the arsenal of an emini trader does not include some excellent uses of indicators and oscillators. For instance, momentum oscillators can be used in trading. However, it is on the chart where the real action lies and in chart-based trading, there are various real-time indicators that tend to hold up well. Some of these indicators provide instant feedback on the basis of real time pricing, such as:
Both up as well as down volume
Minimal use of moving averages so the relativity of current price to the mean can be determined There is a wide range of chart-based indicators that can be used, especially volume, simultaneously with some of the indicators mentioned above in order to determine emini setups.
When reading a price chart, traders are aware that they are receiving real-time feedback and all they need to do is interpret the feedback so that profitable emini trades can be executed. There are quite a few senior traders whose jobs require them to swing trade but they tend to be mad about scalping. In short, real-time data received from a trading chart can be interpreted using relatively simple methods and superior results are yielded by real-time data in comparison to data that tends to lag. Go here for more information.
The bottom line is that, when scalping in emini trading, trades are often held for a really short period of time. Indeed, there are also scalpers who tend to over trade, but it is better if the number of emini trades is held to 5 to 8 high probability trades per day. Visit this page for some useful tips. Finally, since indicator and oscillator-based trading have its problems, such as lagging the market and delaying trades, yet chart-based trading offers an ideal alternative for emini scalping trading.
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